Feature

Improve your odds the Big Slick way.

He may have been a scientist but Louis Pasteur’s famous observation that “chance favours the prepared mind” is a lesson well heeded by poker players.

Every time a player buys in and sits down at a table their prospects of winning are based on luck, maths and skill.

In the short run the ever-fickle Lady Luck is the most important factor on anyone’s bankroll. If she’s smiling on a player they’re going to be raking in pot after pot. Fall foul of her and the same player will be dishing out chips quicker than Harry Ramsden.

Over time though luck levels itself out and it’s the players who have mastered all the skills of the game, including the maths, who are going to be the ones with banana wide smiles.

So in the interests of helping everyone’s bankroll after the annual festive draining of bank accounts here’s the Big Slick guide to the key numbers in Texas Hold’em:

Playing a Hand

• Every time a player is dealt their hole cards they receive one of 1326 possible starting hands.
• If they don’t fold they are going to see one of 19,600 different Flops.
• After the flop there are 1081 possible two card combinations on the Turn and River.
• By the time players show their cards at the end of the hand each will be holding one of 2,598,960 possible five-card hands.

So that’s why I’ve never had a Royal Flush!

Certainly any player who has ever had a Royal Flush has had an immense stroke of luck and should consider buying a lottery ticket! For most players the hand will remain as elusive as Lord Lucan.

Of those 2,598,960 possible hands just four are Royal Flushes. So let’s assume a player was dealt one hand every two minutes and played for eight hours a day, seven days a week.

It would take 10,829 days – just under 30 years – to deal every possible hand. Which means that as there are four Royal Flushes it would take a player around seven-and-a-half years on average to make a Royal Flush!

The odds of your hole cards being:

With hole cards that are not a pair but are off suit the odds of flopping the following are:

A player’s chances of flopping at least one of the above is 2.1:1. In other words the chances are the hand will not improve on the flop.

With a pocket pair as hole cards the odds of flopping the following are:

The important number to remember is the odds of flopping at least a set are 7.5:1.

Some other useful odds to remember:

• A player with four cards of the same suit after the flop is 1.85:1 to make a flush by the river
• A player with an open ended straight draw is 2.2:1 to make at least a straight by the river.
• A player holding an open-ended straight flush draw after the flop is .67:1 to make at least a straight by the river. That is, the player is more likely to improve the hand than not improve it.
• A player drawing to an inside straight is around 11:1 to make it on the next card.

Complete table of approximate odds against a player making their hand after the flop:

So next time you’re sitting there with time running out to decide whether to call and try and make your hand why not put your faith in the numbers?

But don’t forget even the smartest mathematician in the world can’t guarantee he’ll be raking in pot after pot. The numbers are important – but are only part of the game.

* Note all odds provided in the article are odds against you making a hand. Therefore anything above 1:1 (e.g. 23:1) means you are an underdog to make your hand. Anything below 1:1 (e.g. 0.6:1) means you are a favourite to make your hand. All odds are approximate.